Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinationsThe case of Tenerife

Referències bibliogràfiques

• Abraham-frois, G. (1998). Non-linear dynamics and endogenous cycles (Vol. 463). Springer Science & Business Media.
• Akal, M. (2004). forecasting Turkey’s tourism revenues by ARMAX model. Tourism Management, 25(5), 565-580.
• Ambrosie, L. M. (2015). Myths of tourism institutionalization and Cancún. Annals of Tourism Research, 54, 65-83.
• Athanasopoulos, G., & Hyndman, R. J. (2008). Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism. Tourism Management, 29(1), 19-31.
• Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Song, H., & Wu, D. C. (2011). The tourism forecasting competition. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(3), 822-844.
• Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29-38.
• Baggio, R., & Sainaghi, R. (2011). Complex and chaotic tourism systems: Towards a quantitative approach. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 23(6), 840-861.
• Barnett, W.A. & Serletis, A. (2000) Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 24, 703-724.
• Beritelli, P. (2011). Cooperation among prominent actors in a tourist destination. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 607-629.
• Berndt, E. R., Hall, B. H., Hall, R. E., & Hausman, J. A. (1974). Estimation and inference in nonlinear structural models. In Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4 (pp. 653-665). NBER.
• Bianchi, R. V. (2004). Tourism restructuring and the politics of sustainability: A critical view from the European periphery (the Canary islands). Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 12(6), 495-529.
• Bornhorst, T., Ritchie, J. B., & Sheehan, L. (2010). Determinants of tourism success for DMOs & destinations: An empirical examination of stakeholders’ perspectives. Tourism management, 31(5), 572-589.
• Box, G. E., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series models for forecasting and control. San Francisco.
• Brierley, P. (2011). Winning methods for forecasting seasonal tourism time series. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(3), 853-854.
• Butler, R. (2009). Tourism in the future: Cycles, waves or wheels? Futures, 41(6), 346-352.
• Butler, R. (1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution. implications for management of resources. The Canadian Geographer, 24(1), 5-12.
• Chang, C. L., Sriboonchitta, S., & Wiboonpongse, A. (2009). Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(5), 1730-1744.
• Cheng, S., Hu, J., Fox, D., & Zhang, Y. (2012). Tea tourism development in Xinyang, China: Stakeholders’ view. Tourism Management Perspectives, 2, 28-34.
• Cho, V. (2001). Tourism forecasting and its relationship with leading economic indicators. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 25(4), 399-420.
• Chu, f. L. (2009). forecasting tourism demand with ARMA-based methods. Tourism Management, 30(5), 740-751.
• Chu, f. L. (2011). A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism. Tourism Management, 32(6), 1414-1420.
• Clarkson, M. E. (1995). A stakeholder framework for analyzing and evaluating corporate social performance. Academy of Management Review, 20(1), 92-117.
• Cole, S., & Razak, V. (2009). Tourism as future. Futures, 41, 335-345.
• Corral, S., Hernández, J., Navarro Ibáñez, M., & Rivero Ceballos, J. L. (2016). Transforming mature tourism resorts into sustainable tourism destinations through participatory integrated approaches: The case of Puerto de la Cruz. Sustainability, 8(7), 680.
• Currie, R. R., Seaton, S., & Wesley, F. (2009). Determining stakeholders for feasibility analysis. Annals of Tourism Research, 36(1), 41-63.
• Díaz-Pérez, f. M., Bethencourt-Cejas, M. & Álvarez-González, J. A. (2005). The segmentation of Canary island tourism markets by expenditure: implications for tourism policy. Tourism Management, 26(6), 961-964.
• Divino, J. A., & McAleer, M. (2010). Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru. Tourism Management, 31(6), 846-854.
• Domínguez-Gómez, J. A., & González-Gómez, T. (2017). Analysing stakeholders’ perceptions of golf-course-based tourism: A proposal for developing sustainable tourism projects. Tourism Management, 63, 135-143.
• Doornik, J. A., & Ooms, M. (2003). Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 42(3), 333-348.
• Farmaki, A., Altinay, L., Botterill, D., & Hilke, S. (2015). Politics and sustainable tourism: The case of Cyprus. Tourism management, 47, 178-190.
• Fernández-Güell, J. M., & Collado, M. (2014). foresight in designing sun-beach destinations. Tourism Management, 41, 83-95.
• Garau-Vadell, J. B., Díaz-Armas, R., & Gutierrez-Taño, D. (2014). Residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts on island destinations: A comparative analysis. International Journal of Tourism Research, 16(6), 578-585.
• Garín-Muñoz T. (2004). inbound international tourism to Canary islands: A dynamic panel data model. Tourism Management, 27(2), 281 291.
• Geweke, J., & Porter-Hudak, S. (1983). The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of time series analysis, 4(4), 221-238.
• Gil-Alana, L. A., Cunado, J., & Perez de Gracia, f. (2008). Tourism in the Canary islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models. Journal of Forecasting, 27(7), 621-636.
• Giraitis, L., R. Leipus (1995). A generalized fractionally differencing approach in long-memory modelling. Lithuanian Mathematical Journal, 35(1), 53-65.
• Gobierno de España (2012). Plan Nacional e Integral de Turismo 2012-2015, Retrieved from http://www. tourspain.es/es-es/VDE/Documentos%20Vision%20 Destino%20Espaa/Plan%20Nacional%20e%20integral%20 de%20Turismo%202012_2015_FINAL_REVISADO%20 150313.pdf
• Graves, T., Gramacy, R., Watkins, N., & franzke, C. (2017). A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARfiMA, 1951–1980. Entropy, 19(9), 437.
• Granger, C. W., & Joyeux, R. (1980) An introduction to longmemory time series models and fractional differencing. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1(1), 15-29.
• González, J. M. (1999). A system of logistic type equations which modellizes visitors demand in two areas of Tenerife island. Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 35(1), 111-123.
• Guizzardi, A., & Stacchini, A. (2015). Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys. Tourism Management, 47, 213-223.
• Gunter, U., & Önder, i. (2016). forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics. Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 199212.
• Hatipoglu, B., Alvarez, M. D., & Ertuna, B. (2016). Barriers to stakeholder involvement in the planning of sustainable tourism: The case of the Thrace region in Turkey. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111, 306-317.
• Healy, N., van Riper, C. J., & Boyd, S. W. (2016). Low versus high intensity approaches to interpretive tourism planning: The case of the Cliffs of Moher, Ireland. Tourism Management, 52, 574-583.
• Hernández Luis, J. A. (2004). The role of inter-island air transport in the Canary islands. Journal of Transport Geography, 12(3), 235-244.
• Hernández-Martín, R., Álvarez-Albelo, C. D. & Padrón-fumero, N. (2015). The economics and implications of moratoria on tourism accommodation development as a rejuvenation tool in mature tourism destinations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(6), 881-899.
• Hirashima, A., Jones, J., Bonham, C. S., & Fuleky, P. (2017). forecasting in a mixed up world: Nowcasting Hawaii tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 63, 191-202.
• Hurst, H. E. (1951) Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Eng., 116, 770-808.
• Instituto de Estadística de Canarias. (2018). Statistics on services sector. Retrieved from http://www.gobiernodecanarias.org/istac
• Jamal, T. B., & Getz, D. (1995). Collaboration theory and community tourism planning. Annals of tourism research, 22(1), 186-204.
• Jepsen, A. L., & Eskerod, P. (2009). Stakeholder analysis in projects: Challenges in using current guidelines in the real world. International journal of project management, 27(4), 335-343.
• Ledesma-Rodríguez, f. J., Navarro-ibáñez, M. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2001). Panel data and tourism: A case study of Tenerife. Tourism Economics, 7(1), 75-88.
• Ledesma-Rodríguez, f. J., Navarro-ibáñez, M., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2005). Return to tourist destination. is it reputation, after all? Applied Economics, 37(18), 20552065.
• Li, X., Pan, B., Law, R., & Huang, X. (2017). forecasting tourism demand with composite search index. Tourism management, 59, 57-66.
• Li, Y., & Jiang, Q. J. (2017). Demand forecasting and information platform in tourism. Open Physics, 15(1), 247252.
• Lorenz, E.N. (1963). Deterministic non-periodic flow. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130-41.
• Mandelbrot, B. B. (1983) The fractal geometry of nature: Revised and enlarged edition. New York: WH freeman and Co.
• Martín-Santana, J. D., Beerli-Palacio, A., & Nazzareno, P. A. (2017). Antecedents and consequences of destination image gap. Annals of Tourism Research, 62, 13-25.
• Merinero-Rodríguez, R., & Pulido-fernández, J. i. (2016). Analysing relationships in tourism: A review. Tourism Management, 54, 122-135.
• Oreja-Rodríguez, J. R., Parra-López, E. & Yanes-Estévez, V. (2008). The sustainability of island destinations: Tourism area life cycle and teleological perspectives. The case of Tenerife. Tourism Management, 29(1), 53-65.
• Panyik, E., Costa, C., & Rátz, T. (2011). implementing integrated rural tourism: An event-based approach. Tourism Management, 32(6), 1352-1363.
• Parra-López, E., & Oreja-Rodríguez, J. R. (2014). Evaluation of the competitiveness of tourist zones of an island destination: An application of a Many-facet Rasch Model (MfRM). Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 3(2), 114-121.
• Pjerotić, L., Rađenović, M., & Tripković-Marković, A. (2016). Stakeholder collaboration in tourism destination planning–The case of Montenegro. Economics, 4(1), 119-136.
• Peng, B., Song, H., & Crouch, G. I. (2014). A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice. Tourism Management, 45, 181-193.
• Peña-Alonso, C., Ariza, E., Hernández-Calvento, L., & Pérez-Chacón, E. (2018). Exploring multi-dimensional recreational quality of beach socio-ecological systems in the Canary Islands (Spain). Tourism Management, 64, 303-313.
• Reisen, V.A., A.L. Rodrigues, W. Palma (2006). Estimating seasonal long-memory processes: A Monte Carlo study. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76(4), 305-316.
• Remoaldo, P., Freitas, I., Matos, O., Lopes, H., Silva, S., Fernández, M. D. S., ... Ribeiro, V. (2017). The planning of tourism on rural areas: The stakeholders’ perceptions of the Boticas municipality (Northeastern Portugal). European Countryside, 9(3), 504-525.
• Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2011). Tourism and trade in small island regions: The case of the Canary islands. Tourism Economics, 17(1), 107-125.
• Santana-Jiménez, Y., & Hernández, J.M. (2011). Estimating the effect of overcrowding on tourist attraction: The case of Canary islands. Tourism Management, 32(2), 415–425.
• Selcuk Can, A., Alaeddinoglu, F., & Turker, N. (2014). Local authorities’ participation in the tourism planning process. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 10(41), 190-212.
• Song, H., & Hyndman, R. J. (2011). Tourism forecasting: An introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 817-821.
• Sowell, F. (1992). Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models. Journal of Econometrics, 53(1-3), 165-188.
• Tiago, T., Faria, S. D., Cogumbreiro, J. L., Couto, J. P., & Tiago, F. (2016). Different shades of green on small islands. Island Studies Journal, 11(2), 601-618.
• Todd, L., Leask, A., & Ensor, J. (2017). Understanding primary stakeholders’ multiple roles in hallmark event tourism management. Tourism Management, 59, 494-509.
• Turismo de Tenerife (2012). Renovación de la estrategia de Turismo de Tenerife 2012-2015. Retrieved from https:// www.webtenerife.com/es/corporativa/transparencia/ indicadores-transparencia/documents/renovacion-estrategia-turistica-tenerife-2012-2015%20(1).pdf
• Turismo de Tenerife (2017). Estrategia turística de Tenerife 2017-2020. Retrieved from https://www.webtenerife.com/es/investigacion/informes-estudios/ estrategia-planificacion/documents/estrategia-turistica-tenerife-2017-2020-2030.pdf
• Vergori, A. S. (2012). Forecasting tourism demand: the role of seasonality. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 915-930.
• Volgger, M., & Pechlaner, H. (2014). Requirements for destination management organizations in destination governance: Understanding DMO success. Tourism Management, 41, 64-75.
• Wan, S., Song, H., & Ko, D. (2016). Density forecasting for tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 60, 27-30.
• Williams, P. W., Penrose, R. W., & Hawkes, S. (1998). Shared decision-making in tourism land use planning. Annals of tourism research, 25(4), 860-889.
• Wong, K. K., Song, H., Witt, S. F., & Wu, D. C. (2007). Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? Tourism management, 28(4), 1068-1078.
• Yang, X., Pan, B., Evans, J. A., & Lv, B. (2015). forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data. Tourism Management, 46, 386-397.
• Yuksel, F., Bramwell, B., & Yuksel, A. (1999). Stakeholder interviews and tourism planning at Pamukkale, Turkey. Tourism Management, 20(3), 351-360.