Canary tomato export pricescomparison and relationships between daily seasonal patterns

  1. G. Martín-Rodríguez
  2. Cáceres Hernández, José Juan
Revue:
Spanish journal of agricultural research

ISSN: 1695-971X 2171-9292

Année de publication: 2013

Volumen: 11

Número: 4

Pages: 882-893

Type: Article

DOI: 10.5424/SJAR/2013114-4063 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

D'autres publications dans: Spanish journal of agricultural research

Résumé

Statistical procedures are proposed to describe, compare and forecast the behaviour of seasonal variations in two daily price series of Canary tomato exported to German and British markets, respectively, over the last decade. These seasonal patterns are pseudo-periodic as the length of the seasonal period changes frequently in dependence of market conditions. Seasonal effect at a day in the harvesting period is defined as a spline function of the proportion of the length of such a period elapsed up to such a day. Then, seasonal patterns for the two series are compared in terms of the area between the corresponding spline functions. The ability of these models to capture the dynamic process of change in the seasonal pattern is useful to forecasting purpose. Furthermore, an analytical tool is also proposed to obtain forecasts of the seasonal pattern in one of these two series from the forecasts of the seasonal pattern in the other one. These procedures are useful for farmers in developing strategies related to the seasonal distribution of tomato production exported to each market.

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