Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinationsThe case of Tenerife
-
1
Universidad de La Laguna
info
ISSN: 2340-6704, 0210-0266
Año de publicación: 2019
Volumen: 42
Número: 118
Páginas: 59-69
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Cuadernos de economía: Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance
Resumen
This work aims to explore the behavior of a mature island tourist destination, Teneri-fe, according to the Autoregressive Fractional Differencing Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. This behavior will be compared to several other destinations, in an increasing geogra-phical scale. Relevant lessons will arise for policy making at the short and long run. Predictabi-lity seems to be available but only for a limited horizon. Self similarity across geographic level seems to arise from the results. These findings complement previous conceptualizations like classic TALC (tourism area life cycle) based on long term predictability.
Referencias bibliográficas
- Abraham-frois, G. (1998). Non-linear dynamics and endogenous cycles (Vol. 463). Springer Science & Business Media.
- Akal, M. (2004). forecasting Turkey’s tourism revenues by ARMAX model. Tourism Management, 25(5), 565-580.
- Ambrosie, L. M. (2015). Myths of tourism institutionalization and Cancún. Annals of Tourism Research, 54, 65-83.
- Athanasopoulos, G., & Hyndman, R. J. (2008). Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism. Tourism Management, 29(1), 19-31.
- Athanasopoulos, G., Hyndman, R. J., Song, H., & Wu, D. C. (2011). The tourism forecasting competition. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(3), 822-844.
- Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29-38.
- Baggio, R., & Sainaghi, R. (2011). Complex and chaotic tourism systems: Towards a quantitative approach. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 23(6), 840-861.
- Barnett, W.A. & Serletis, A. (2000) Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 24, 703-724.
- Beritelli, P. (2011). Cooperation among prominent actors in a tourist destination. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 607-629.
- Berndt, E. R., Hall, B. H., Hall, R. E., & Hausman, J. A. (1974). Estimation and inference in nonlinear structural models. In Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4 (pp. 653-665). NBER.
- Bianchi, R. V. (2004). Tourism restructuring and the politics of sustainability: A critical view from the European periphery (the Canary islands). Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 12(6), 495-529.
- Bornhorst, T., Ritchie, J. B., & Sheehan, L. (2010). Determinants of tourism success for DMOs & destinations: An empirical examination of stakeholders’ perspectives. Tourism management, 31(5), 572-589.
- Box, G. E., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series models for forecasting and control. San Francisco.
- Brierley, P. (2011). Winning methods for forecasting seasonal tourism time series. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(3), 853-854.
- Butler, R. (2009). Tourism in the future: Cycles, waves or wheels? Futures, 41(6), 346-352.
- Butler, R. (1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution. implications for management of resources. The Canadian Geographer, 24(1), 5-12.
- Chang, C. L., Sriboonchitta, S., & Wiboonpongse, A. (2009). Modelling and forecasting tourism from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spatial aggregation. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79(5), 1730-1744.
- Cheng, S., Hu, J., Fox, D., & Zhang, Y. (2012). Tea tourism development in Xinyang, China: Stakeholders’ view. Tourism Management Perspectives, 2, 28-34.
- Cho, V. (2001). Tourism forecasting and its relationship with leading economic indicators. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 25(4), 399-420.
- Chu, f. L. (2009). forecasting tourism demand with ARMA-based methods. Tourism Management, 30(5), 740-751.
- Chu, f. L. (2011). A piecewise linear approach to modeling and forecasting demand for Macau tourism. Tourism Management, 32(6), 1414-1420.
- Clarkson, M. E. (1995). A stakeholder framework for analyzing and evaluating corporate social performance. Academy of Management Review, 20(1), 92-117.
- Cole, S., & Razak, V. (2009). Tourism as future. Futures, 41, 335-345.
- Corral, S., Hernández, J., Navarro Ibáñez, M., & Rivero Ceballos, J. L. (2016). Transforming mature tourism resorts into sustainable tourism destinations through participatory integrated approaches: The case of Puerto de la Cruz. Sustainability, 8(7), 680.
- Currie, R. R., Seaton, S., & Wesley, F. (2009). Determining stakeholders for feasibility analysis. Annals of Tourism Research, 36(1), 41-63.
- Díaz-Pérez, f. M., Bethencourt-Cejas, M. & Álvarez-González, J. A. (2005). The segmentation of Canary island tourism markets by expenditure: implications for tourism policy. Tourism Management, 26(6), 961-964.
- Divino, J. A., & McAleer, M. (2010). Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru. Tourism Management, 31(6), 846-854.
- Domínguez-Gómez, J. A., & González-Gómez, T. (2017). Analysing stakeholders’ perceptions of golf-course-based tourism: A proposal for developing sustainable tourism projects. Tourism Management, 63, 135-143.
- Doornik, J. A., & Ooms, M. (2003). Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 42(3), 333-348.
- Farmaki, A., Altinay, L., Botterill, D., & Hilke, S. (2015). Politics and sustainable tourism: The case of Cyprus. Tourism management, 47, 178-190.
- Fernández-Güell, J. M., & Collado, M. (2014). foresight in designing sun-beach destinations. Tourism Management, 41, 83-95.
- Garau-Vadell, J. B., Díaz-Armas, R., & Gutierrez-Taño, D. (2014). Residents’ perceptions of tourism impacts on island destinations: A comparative analysis. International Journal of Tourism Research, 16(6), 578-585.
- Garín-Muñoz T. (2004). inbound international tourism to Canary islands: A dynamic panel data model. Tourism Management, 27(2), 281 291.
- Geweke, J., & Porter-Hudak, S. (1983). The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of time series analysis, 4(4), 221-238.
- Gil-Alana, L. A., Cunado, J., & Perez de Gracia, f. (2008). Tourism in the Canary islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models. Journal of Forecasting, 27(7), 621-636.
- Giraitis, L., R. Leipus (1995). A generalized fractionally differencing approach in long-memory modelling. Lithuanian Mathematical Journal, 35(1), 53-65.
- Gobierno de España (2012). Plan Nacional e Integral de Turismo 2012-2015, Retrieved from http://www. tourspain.es/es-es/VDE/Documentos%20Vision%20 Destino%20Espaa/Plan%20Nacional%20e%20integral%20 de%20Turismo%202012_2015_FINAL_REVISADO%20 150313.pdf
- Graves, T., Gramacy, R., Watkins, N., & franzke, C. (2017). A brief history of long memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the road to ARfiMA, 1951–1980. Entropy, 19(9), 437.
- Granger, C. W., & Joyeux, R. (1980) An introduction to longmemory time series models and fractional differencing. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1(1), 15-29.
- González, J. M. (1999). A system of logistic type equations which modellizes visitors demand in two areas of Tenerife island. Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 35(1), 111-123.
- Guizzardi, A., & Stacchini, A. (2015). Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys. Tourism Management, 47, 213-223.
- Gunter, U., & Önder, i. (2016). forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics. Annals of Tourism Research, 61, 199212.
- Hatipoglu, B., Alvarez, M. D., & Ertuna, B. (2016). Barriers to stakeholder involvement in the planning of sustainable tourism: The case of the Thrace region in Turkey. Journal of Cleaner Production, 111, 306-317.
- Healy, N., van Riper, C. J., & Boyd, S. W. (2016). Low versus high intensity approaches to interpretive tourism planning: The case of the Cliffs of Moher, Ireland. Tourism Management, 52, 574-583.
- Hernández Luis, J. A. (2004). The role of inter-island air transport in the Canary islands. Journal of Transport Geography, 12(3), 235-244.
- Hernández-Martín, R., Álvarez-Albelo, C. D. & Padrón-fumero, N. (2015). The economics and implications of moratoria on tourism accommodation development as a rejuvenation tool in mature tourism destinations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 23(6), 881-899.
- Hirashima, A., Jones, J., Bonham, C. S., & Fuleky, P. (2017). forecasting in a mixed up world: Nowcasting Hawaii tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 63, 191-202.
- Hurst, H. E. (1951) Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Eng., 116, 770-808.
- Instituto de Estadística de Canarias. (2018). Statistics on services sector. Retrieved from http://www.gobiernodecanarias.org/istac
- Jamal, T. B., & Getz, D. (1995). Collaboration theory and community tourism planning. Annals of tourism research, 22(1), 186-204.
- Jepsen, A. L., & Eskerod, P. (2009). Stakeholder analysis in projects: Challenges in using current guidelines in the real world. International journal of project management, 27(4), 335-343.
- Ledesma-Rodríguez, f. J., Navarro-ibáñez, M. & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2001). Panel data and tourism: A case study of Tenerife. Tourism Economics, 7(1), 75-88.
- Ledesma-Rodríguez, f. J., Navarro-ibáñez, M., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2005). Return to tourist destination. is it reputation, after all? Applied Economics, 37(18), 20552065.
- Li, X., Pan, B., Law, R., & Huang, X. (2017). forecasting tourism demand with composite search index. Tourism management, 59, 57-66.
- Li, Y., & Jiang, Q. J. (2017). Demand forecasting and information platform in tourism. Open Physics, 15(1), 247252.
- Lorenz, E.N. (1963). Deterministic non-periodic flow. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 20, 130-41.
- Mandelbrot, B. B. (1983) The fractal geometry of nature: Revised and enlarged edition. New York: WH freeman and Co.
- Martín-Santana, J. D., Beerli-Palacio, A., & Nazzareno, P. A. (2017). Antecedents and consequences of destination image gap. Annals of Tourism Research, 62, 13-25.
- Merinero-Rodríguez, R., & Pulido-fernández, J. i. (2016). Analysing relationships in tourism: A review. Tourism Management, 54, 122-135.
- Oreja-Rodríguez, J. R., Parra-López, E. & Yanes-Estévez, V. (2008). The sustainability of island destinations: Tourism area life cycle and teleological perspectives. The case of Tenerife. Tourism Management, 29(1), 53-65.
- Panyik, E., Costa, C., & Rátz, T. (2011). implementing integrated rural tourism: An event-based approach. Tourism Management, 32(6), 1352-1363.
- Parra-López, E., & Oreja-Rodríguez, J. R. (2014). Evaluation of the competitiveness of tourist zones of an island destination: An application of a Many-facet Rasch Model (MfRM). Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 3(2), 114-121.
- PjerotiÄ, L., RaÄenoviÄ, M., & TripkoviÄ-MarkoviÄ, A. (2016). Stakeholder collaboration in tourism destination planning–The case of Montenegro. Economics, 4(1), 119-136.
- Peng, B., Song, H., & Crouch, G. I. (2014). A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice. Tourism Management, 45, 181-193.
- Peña-Alonso, C., Ariza, E., Hernández-Calvento, L., & Pérez-Chacón, E. (2018). Exploring multi-dimensional recreational quality of beach socio-ecological systems in the Canary Islands (Spain). Tourism Management, 64, 303-313.
- Reisen, V.A., A.L. Rodrigues, W. Palma (2006). Estimating seasonal long-memory processes: A Monte Carlo study. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 76(4), 305-316.
- Remoaldo, P., Freitas, I., Matos, O., Lopes, H., Silva, S., Fernández, M. D. S., ... Ribeiro, V. (2017). The planning of tourism on rural areas: The stakeholders’ perceptions of the Boticas municipality (Northeastern Portugal). European Countryside, 9(3), 504-525.
- Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2011). Tourism and trade in small island regions: The case of the Canary islands. Tourism Economics, 17(1), 107-125.
- Santana-Jiménez, Y., & Hernández, J.M. (2011). Estimating the effect of overcrowding on tourist attraction: The case of Canary islands. Tourism Management, 32(2), 415–425.
- Selcuk Can, A., Alaeddinoglu, F., & Turker, N. (2014). Local authorities’ participation in the tourism planning process. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 10(41), 190-212.
- Song, H., & Hyndman, R. J. (2011). Tourism forecasting: An introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 817-821.
- Sowell, F. (1992). Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models. Journal of Econometrics, 53(1-3), 165-188.
- Tiago, T., Faria, S. D., Cogumbreiro, J. L., Couto, J. P., & Tiago, F. (2016). Different shades of green on small islands. Island Studies Journal, 11(2), 601-618.
- Todd, L., Leask, A., & Ensor, J. (2017). Understanding primary stakeholders’ multiple roles in hallmark event tourism management. Tourism Management, 59, 494-509.
- Turismo de Tenerife (2012). Renovación de la estrategia de Turismo de Tenerife 2012-2015. Retrieved from https:// www.webtenerife.com/es/corporativa/transparencia/ indicadores-transparencia/documents/renovacion-estrategia-turistica-tenerife-2012-2015%20(1).pdf
- Turismo de Tenerife (2017). Estrategia turística de Tenerife 2017-2020. Retrieved from https://www.webtenerife.com/es/investigacion/informes-estudios/ estrategia-planificacion/documents/estrategia-turistica-tenerife-2017-2020-2030.pdf
- Vergori, A. S. (2012). Forecasting tourism demand: the role of seasonality. Tourism Economics, 18(5), 915-930.
- Volgger, M., & Pechlaner, H. (2014). Requirements for destination management organizations in destination governance: Understanding DMO success. Tourism Management, 41, 64-75.
- Wan, S., Song, H., & Ko, D. (2016). Density forecasting for tourism demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 60, 27-30.
- Williams, P. W., Penrose, R. W., & Hawkes, S. (1998). Shared decision-making in tourism land use planning. Annals of tourism research, 25(4), 860-889.
- Wong, K. K., Song, H., Witt, S. F., & Wu, D. C. (2007). Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? Tourism management, 28(4), 1068-1078.
- Yang, X., Pan, B., Evans, J. A., & Lv, B. (2015). forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data. Tourism Management, 46, 386-397.
- Yuksel, F., Bramwell, B., & Yuksel, A. (1999). Stakeholder interviews and tourism planning at Pamukkale, Turkey. Tourism Management, 20(3), 351-360.